Current Market Inputs
Analysis Results
Historical Comparison
Sector Risk Breakdown
Historical Recession Patterns
The KOSPI has experienced three major corrections since 2000. Each taught us how market structure responds to external shocks.
2008 Financial Crisis
KOSPI fell 53% from peak to trough. P/E ratios collapsed from 18 to 9. AI stocks didn't exist in recognizable form.
Key lesson: Broad market panic affects all sectors. Recovery took 4 years.
2011 Global Slowdown
KOSPI dropped 36%. European debt concerns created a 'risk-off' environment. Tech stocks held better than utilities.
Key lesson: Quality companies with pricing power outperform during uncertainty.
2020 Pandemic Crash
KOSPI fell 33% in 23 days. AI and cloud stocks fell 40% while broader market fell 25%. Recovery was V-shaped.
Key lesson: Concentration in fast-moving sectors creates volatility. Recovery can be swift.
Understanding the Risk Score
The calculation combines three factors: valuation level, sector concentration, and historical precedent. Higher scores indicate greater vulnerability to a correction.
Risk bands: 0-30% = Low risk, 31-60% = Moderate risk, 61-80% = Elevated risk, 81-100% = High risk.
Important assumptions: The model assumes similar macro conditions to past events. It does not account for central bank intervention, geopolitical events, or currency swings. Korean Won weakness can amplify KOSPI moves by 10-15%.
Common mistakes: Ignoring the AI concentration factor. Assuming historical patterns repeat exactly. Not considering dividend yields as downside cushion (KOSPI dividend yield currently 3.2%).